Prediction: the phenomenon of excessive inventory of global chips in the first quarter of this year has eased.
iSuppli, a famous market research company, recently predicted that due to the weak demand in December 2007, chip suppliers reduced semiconductor production and customer inventory was reduced. In the first quarter of 2008, the global excess semiconductor inventory will fall to $2.9 billion, down 14.6% from $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007, The previous inventory reduction in the fourth quarter of 2007 was also 21% less for experimental machine manufacturers
isuppli said that although the excess inventory is expected to decline in the first quarter, the total level of chip inventory may rise again, while semiconductor suppliers' own inventory level is high, coupled with concerns about the market environment, inventory may rebound in the second quarter. If the end demand situation worsens and orders rush in, suppliers will be forced to increase inventory. Although the PC supply chain still pays attention to the inventory and demand of microprocessors, the price war between Intel and AMD has slowed down, eliminating many uncertainties in the market
isuppli pointed out that DRAM inventory increased slightly at the end of February, and it is expected that the average selling price (ASP) of memory will continue to decline throughout March. However, the average sales price of DRAM oil flowing back to the tank from the oil return pipe is expected to reach the bottom in the second quarter. The demand for NAND flash memory was lower than expected, and the low price made Intel reduce its financial forecast for the first quarter. The company plans to write off excessive NAND inventory at the end of March. The weak consumption trend caused buyers to reduce the level of NAND orders in 2008. The most noteworthy example is appleAccording to the report of the semiconductor industry association (SIA), the average value of global chip sales in February 2008 was US $20.14 billion, an increase of 1.5% over the same period last year, which is in line with the normal seasonal characteristics of the industry. However, this figure was 4.9% lower than the average value in January 2008, when sales were $21.48 billion. DRAM prices continued to decline, masking the increase in global chip sales in February. Excluding memory products, global semiconductor sales increased by almost 10% year-on-year. Although DRAM unit shipments increased by 43%, the sales revenue fell by 40% compared with the previous year
compared with the same period last year, the average sales price of DRAM fell sharply by 60%. The overall unit shipments of all semiconductor products increased by 11.6% over the same period last year. Although the U.S. economy began to slow down, the demand for semiconductors outside the United States continued to drive the above-mentioned growth. The Asia Pacific market, including Chinese factories with filtration devices, has surpassed the United States as the largest PC market. The remaining markets, including Eastern Europe, Africa and South America, have the same number of units sold in the United States in 2007, and are expected to surpass the United States in PC unit sales in 2008. The growth is even greater in the international market, especially in the Asia Pacific region. According to JPMorgan, the Asia Pacific region shipped 540million units in 2008, more than three times the 161.6 million units sold in the U.S. market
statistics show that semiconductor suppliers currently bear most of the excess inventory in the supply chain, so their manufacturing efforts directly affect the excess inventory in the supply chain. Most of the excess inventory in the hands of chip suppliers is to meet the expected demand. Chip customers continue to hold down inventory levels and buy chips only when necessary. Chip customers are cautious, so chip suppliers know little about the current market situation. Suppliers have prepared a large amount of excess inventory for their customers. Only in the end do these companies know whether their inventory is in vain
due to chip customers' cautious views on the macroeconomic environment, market visibility remained low. This has led suppliers to lose sight of the prospects for orders in the first half of 2008. Although some semiconductor suppliers facing the PC market suggested that their customers let them know the order situation of the next quarter, the overall visibility was still poor
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